Economic impacts of achieving a net-zero emissions target in the power sector

Journal Paper by Sarah Hafner, Aled Jones and Annela Anger-Kraavic
Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol 312 | June 2021

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Summary

With increasing concerns about climate change, calls for the adoption of net-zero carbon emissions targets are rising. Achieving this target necessitates a radical decarbonisation of the electricity system, including the shut-down of currently operating high-carbon energy infrastructure. In the light of this background, this paper develops a novel system dynamics energy-economy model to explore the long-term macroeconomic effects, and changes in the power system costs of different low-carbon electricity transition scenarios.

Using the UK as a case study, our simulations demonstrate that there is no win-win policy solution. The paper argues that while the early retirement of a certain amount of brown energy infrastructure is required for the UK to achieve its emissions target, the amount should be determined with care in order to manage the electricity system costs and prices. By using an implicit carbon price, the paper finds that certain trajectories lead to lower power system costs while achieving the net-zero target.

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Citation

Hafner S, Jones A and A Anger-Kraavic 2021. Economic impacts of achieving a net-zero emissions target in the power sector. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol 312. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127610.

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